METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING THE PROBABILITY OF CATASTROPHIC FAILURE OF THE FUNCTIONAL SYSTEMS OF AIRPLANES

629.7/621.01

The new methodological approach is considered in the article. This new approach may be applied to calculate restorable redundant systems infallibility. Probability theory of multiplication is not used in this approach. The new approach is based upon assumption that during stationary exploitation process, the element refusal probability may be defined by summary of elements refusals flow parameter of the workable system part and elements preview working hours. The features of methodological approach are possibilities of time intervals estimation. In these intervals the system refusals may be realized with given probability. Based on the new approach the airplanes functional systems infallibility estimation methods are developed. The infallibility calculation may be performed with and without taking into account the system recovery. The method considers structure changing in system, as the refusals in system may be realized. The method gives the estimation of system refusal probabilities per flying hour. The dependence of infallibility from flight time with refusal is considered. The solution of functional system infallibility calculation task, meaning the system with active redundancy which is currently running, is presented

functional system, reliability, redundancy, recovery, the probability for an hour flight